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The Rio Times - Brazil runoff results and polls
Brazil's Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro head into a runoff that polls call a coin toss
Final surveys show the presidential race tied or within a point ahead of Sunday's vote
BRASÍLIA — Brazil's presidential runoff is Sunday, Oct. 25. It pits President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. In the Oct. 4 first round, Bolsonaro took 47.03 percent of valid votes (about 56.1 million) and Lula 45.16 percent (about 53.9 million), according to the electoral court's final count. Bolsonaro carried 15 of 27 electoral units, including São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro. Lula won all nine Northeastern states. The last polls published Thursday are inside the margin of error. Datafolha has the two tied at 50 percent. Indexa has Bolsonaro at 50.6 percent and PoderData has him at 51 percent. Datafolha also puts approval of Lula's government at 49 percent. Lula won the 2022 runoff with 50.9 percent.
Why it mattersThe result will set the direction of Latin America's largest economy and the future of the Bolsonaro movement, and it carries consequences for U.S.-Brazil relations.
Ethiopia's war with Tigray rebels edges toward a direct clash with Eritrea
Federal forces hold Mekelle as Addis Ababa tells the UN that Eritrean troops are inside Tigray
ADDIS ABABA — Fighting that began Sept. 23, when a rebel alliance including the Tigray People's Liberation Front attacked federal forces across Tigray, Afar and Amhara, is turning into a regional confrontation. Federal troops and the allied Tigray Peace Force entered the regional capital, Mekelle, in early October after the TPLF pulled out. They have since pushed north and west. Ethiopia and Eritrea cut diplomatic ties on Oct. 1. Ethiopia told the UN Security Council that Eritrean troops had advanced as far as 60 km into Tigray and called it an act of aggression. Eritrea denies any involvement, and the claims are not independently verified, though ACLED and witnesses cited by AP and other outlets report Eritrean movements. Crisis Group lists both countries among its October conflict risk alerts and warns that a direct war would pull in the wider Horn of Africa and Red Sea region.
Why it mattersA direct Ethiopia-Eritrea war would destabilize the Horn of Africa and Red Sea shipping routes, and it would draw in Sudan and Egypt.
Amnesty International - Gaza ceasefire exists in name only
Gaza truce turns one year old as Israelis prepare to vote Tuesday
Rights groups say the ceasefire exists on paper; Board of Peace points to reconstruction pledges
GAZA CITY — A year after the Gaza ceasefire took effect, more than 100 aid and rights groups, including Amnesty, Oxfam and the Norwegian Refugee Council, say it exists in name only. Gaza's Health Ministry counts 1,493 Palestinians killed since the truce as of Oct. 12, and a cumulative toll above 74,000. Al Jazeera reports that no international stabilization force has deployed. It also reports that aid trucks enter at about a third of the agreed rate and that Israel holds nearly two-thirds of the Strip, against roughly half planned. The Board of Peace's adviser says about $18 billion in reconstruction pledges is in hand and a six-month recovery program is ready. Qatar and France on Wednesday called for the truce to be implemented and for Israeli forces to withdraw. Israelis vote Oct. 27, and Crisis Group warns that the coalition could escalate on several fronts beforehand.
Why it mattersThe stalled second phase of the Gaza plan, and the Israeli election that follows, will shape whether the truce holds or the war resumes.
FDD's Long War Journal - Pakistan-Taliban border clashes continue amid diplomatic efforts
Pakistan-Taliban border war grinds on as mediators fail and proxies multiply
A report that Islamabad has courted anti-Taliban armed groups raises fears of a wider conflict
ISLAMABAD — Pakistan and Afghanistan's Taliban government kept trading fire along the border this month. On Oct. 17 they exchanged artillery and small-arms fire for nearly four hours in Kurram and in Afghanistan's Paktia province, with each side blaming the other. The fighting followed a Sept. 18 suicide attack in northwestern Pakistan that killed 31 people. Pakistan says the Taliban shelter anti-state militants, and the Taliban deny it. The New York Times reported, as relayed by Afghanistan International, that Pakistani military and intelligence officials have met armed anti-Taliban groups. A Crisis Group analyst called the shift toward proxies dangerous. Mediation by China, Russia, Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia has produced nothing. A Moscow-hosted regional meeting on Oct. 5 ended without a joint statement. Pakistan says it will not negotiate until the Taliban end their support for militants. Islamabad also suspended Khyber Pakhtunkhwa's provincial government amid security concerns.
Why it mattersAn open-ended conflict between a nuclear-armed state and the Taliban threatens regional stability and gives jihadist groups room to operate.
Euronews - EU agrees to sanction over 1,600 people and entities
EU adopts its largest Russia listings yet and regrets U.S. diesel easing
Leaders at the Oct. 15-16 summit pledge more pressure on Moscow, including on the shadow fleet
BRUSSELS — On Oct. 12 the EU Council listed 1,569 individuals and entities in Russia's military-industrial complex, 826 companies and 743 company chiefs. It is the biggest single set of listings since the 2022 invasion and takes the total close to 4,600. Over half of the listings relate to the ballistic missile supply chain. Separately, the EU sanctioned 77 people over the State Duma voting held in occupied Ukrainian territory. At their Oct. 15-16 summit, EU leaders welcomed the measures. They called for steps to cut Russian energy revenues and for a coordinated crackdown on the shadow fleet, and said they were weighing tighter visa rules for Russians. Their conclusions also regretted Washington's decision to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian diesel. Brussels is also debating whether to move sanctions decisions to majority voting. The Commission has proposed this to avoid single-country vetoes after the contentious delisting of two oligarchs.
Why it mattersThe package shows the EU tightening pressure on Russia's arms industry while Washington eases some measures, which widens the transatlantic gap on Russia policy.
US and Israel reported to have drawn up post-election Iran strike plans
The New York Times says a short, intensive campaign is planned after Nov. 3. Trump has not approved it.
WASHINGTON — The U.S. and Israeli militaries have drafted specific plans for renewed strikes on Iran after the Nov. 3 U.S. midterms, according to a New York Times report published Wednesday. The report cites U.S. officials and others briefed on the matter. Planners describe a short but intensive operation, possibly lasting three days. Likely targets are Iranian energy sites, nuclear facilities and missile and drone stocks. Some planners believe the economic damage could push Tehran toward concessions. The two militaries have stepped up exercises, including flights over Iraq to rehearse strike maneuvers. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel this week. The Times says President Trump has not approved any strikes and has called off earlier plans. The White House did not comment on specifics. Iranian officials say they would respond by widening their targets to Gulf data centers and undersea cables. Israel votes on Oct. 27.
Why it mattersA resumed U.S.-Israeli campaign could reignite an eight-month war and put U.S. bases, Gulf energy sites and shipping at risk.
Top intelligence Democrats say Russia is running covert campaign against Ukraine backers
Warner and Himes cite a classified report. It describes AI-assisted influence operations but no attack on voting systems.
WASHINGTON — Sen. Mark Warner and Rep. Jim Himes, the senior Democrats on the Senate and House intelligence committees, said Wednesday that the intelligence community has documented a covert Russian online influence campaign ahead of the midterms. They said the classified report reached their offices Tuesday. According to the lawmakers, Moscow is targeting Democrats and candidates of either party who back Ukraine. Its aim is to sow distrust in institutions and voting machines. Warner said Russia is using AI tools to spread content faster and aim it more precisely. He cited news reports of AI-generated ads aimed at Sens. Jon Ossoff and James Talarico. Both lawmakers said they have seen no sign of an attempt to manipulate voting machinery or ballots. Himes said several legally required threat assessments are still outstanding. The report is not public, and the account comes from the two lawmakers. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence did not respond to Politico's request for comment.
Why it mattersPublic confidence in the Nov. 3 election is being tested by influence operations, and claims of foreign interference are likely to be contested.
Texas teen arrested in alleged ISIS-inspired plot against Rep. Keith Self
The 17-year-old was taken into custody Oct. 5 after he obtained a firearm, according to local reporting.
MCKINNEY, Texas — Federal authorities arrested a 17-year-old in McKinney, Texas, on Oct. 5 over an alleged plan to kill Rep. Keith Self, R-Texas, and carry out a separate ISIS-inspired attack in North Texas. The account comes from WFAA, which cites federal law enforcement sources. The suspect is unnamed because he is a minor. He had reportedly been on the FBI's radar and was arrested after acquiring a gun. The reporting says the target date was Oct. 17, when Self was to judge a chili cook-off at a veterans' hall in McKinney. Self said he and his family are safe and thanked the FBI. The FBI and Justice Department have not publicly detailed the charges or the evidence in the sources reviewed. It is also unclear whether the teen had any direct contact with ISIS. The case follows other recent FBI arrests in alleged online-radicalization plots, including the Mall of America case in Minnesota.
Why it mattersThe case adds to a run of disrupted plots by young, online-radicalized suspects, now including a sitting member of Congress as an alleged target.
Pentagon and Lockheed reach 10-year F-35 framework deal for 850-plus jets
The agreement covers production and sustainment but needs congressional approval. It does not raise output.
WASHINGTON — The Pentagon and Lockheed Martin announced Thursday a framework agreement covering a decade of F-35 production and sustainment, Breaking Defense reported. It covers at least 850 U.S. aircraft over 10 production lots, with initial spares and 10 years of sustainment and modification kits. Under the Pentagon's release, Lockheed will fund $7 billion in unspecified F-35 initiatives. Lockheed says production will stay at 156 jets a year, so unlike other recent Pentagon framework deals, this one does not boost the build rate. Contract terms, pricing and schedules are still to be finalized, and only if Congress grants multiyear authority and funds it. The Senate's fiscal 2027 defense bill would allow multiyear buys. The House version adds conditions: a full spares package and at least 5 percent savings. More than 1,300 F-35s have been delivered so far.
Why it mattersThe deal tests whether the Pentagon's long-term contracting model can improve the readiness and cost of its largest weapons program, estimated at nearly $2 trillion over its life.
House Judiciary Committee Democrats: Raskin press release and letter
Raskin presses DOJ on refusal to aid state and foreign Epstein probes
House Judiciary Democrat demands records on denied cooperation requests, previewing a possible agenda if his party wins the House
WASHINGTON — Rep. Jamie Raskin, the ranking Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee, wrote Wednesday to Attorney General Todd Blanche and Vaughn Ary, who directs the Justice Department's Office of International Affairs. He asked for all records on mutual legal assistance requests from foreign governments investigating Epstein's possible co-conspirators. He also asked for records of any decision to deny help to state or local law enforcement. Raskin says the department is refusing to investigate Epstein associates itself and is now blocking other jurisdictions from doing so. The department confirmed receipt and said the request is under review. It has not explained its refusals to foreign investigators, and it has called New Mexico's request overly broad. The department is not obliged to comply. Democrats have signaled more hearings and subpoenas if they win a House majority in November.
Why it mattersThe letter points to a likely Democratic oversight focus after the midterms: whether federal officials are impeding state and foreign investigations of Epstein's associates.