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Dalton Daily

Sourced widely. Told plainly.
Vol. I · No. 12Morning edition
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Business & Markets

Business

Alphabet sinks about 10% on first miss in nearly four years; Microsoft gains
Wikipedia

Alphabet sinks about 10% on first miss in nearly four years; Microsoft gains

Google Cloud revenue doubles, but record AI spending pushes free cash flow negative; Azure growth lifts Microsoft

NEW YORK — Alphabet shares fell roughly 10% in after-hours trading Wednesday after it missed Wall Street's revenue and earnings targets for the first time in nearly four years. Revenue rose 25% to $127.6 billion. Earnings were $2.12 a share against about $3.02 expected, partly because of an $8.7 billion paper loss on equity investments. Google Cloud revenue rose 103% to $30.7 billion. Capital spending reached $51.4 billion and free cash flow was negative $9.1 billion. Alphabet held its 2026 capex forecast at about $200 billion and signaled a significant increase in 2027. Microsoft moved the other way: it reported $92.3 billion in revenue, up 19%, and Azure growth of 48%. Its shares rose about 4% after hours, though free cash flow fell 27%. Amazon reports after the close today.

Why it mattersInvestors are rewarding AI spending that shows up as cloud growth and punishing it when it drains cash, which sets the tone for the other big tech earnings this week.

ServiceNow and Fortinet crash on earnings, reviving fears over software stocks
Seeking Alpha: Fortinet falls despite strong Q3 results

ServiceNow and Fortinet crash on earnings, reviving fears over software stocks

Both companies beat or raised in places, yet shares fell 15% to 25% after hours as investors worry about AI

NEW YORK — Two software companies lost a large share of their value in after-hours trading Wednesday despite upbeat parts of their reports. ServiceNow posted adjusted earnings of $1.00 a share, short of analyst estimates, and gave a fourth-quarter outlook some investors judged soft, even though it raised its AI sales target and its free-cash-flow margin goal. Its shares fell between about 15% and 19% in extended trading, depending on the source. Fortinet, the cybersecurity firm, reported adjusted earnings of $0.91 against a $0.86 consensus and raised its 2026 guidance, but its stock still dropped about 20% or more. The Information said the ServiceNow slide shows investors still fear AI will erode traditional software businesses. Both stocks had rallied in recent weeks, which raised expectations.

Why it mattersA recovery in software shares had been a bright spot in the market, and these results suggest investors still doubt that AI helps incumbents more than it threatens them.

Amazon cuts 250 more device jobs as eBay and Netflix trim about 1,000 each
BusinessToday (citing Reuters): Amazon slashes 250 jobs

Amazon cuts 250 more device jobs as eBay and Netflix trim about 1,000 each

Corporate layoffs keep rolling through tech even as companies report strong business

SEATTLE — Amazon eliminated about 250 jobs, mostly software development roles, in its devices and services unit on Wednesday. Employees were told by text and email. The company said the cuts would help it operate more efficiently and match its product roadmap. It follows about 1,000 cuts in its core retail division earlier this month, Reuters reported. Newsweek reports that Netflix is laying off about 1,000 workers, roughly 6% of its staff, its largest round since 2022. It says eBay is cutting about 1,000 jobs, around 9% of its workforce. Crunchbase's tracker counted at least 1,790 tech workers affected in a recent two-week stretch, including Electronic Arts' closure of its BioWare studio in Edmonton. Newsweek noted that nationwide layoff figures remain relatively low despite the tech cuts.

Why it mattersLarge, profitable companies are shrinking white-collar headcount while the wider labor market has not yet shown matching weakness.

Small-business optimism slips below average as costs, hiring woes weigh
The Edge Malaysia (Bloomberg): US small-business optimism falls

Small-business optimism slips below average as costs, hiring woes weigh

NFIB's September index fell to 97.9; owners cite labor quality and inflation, and few see a good time to expand

WASHINGTON — The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.8 points in September to 97.9, one-tenth of a point below its 52-year average, the group reported Oct. 13. Its Uncertainty Index rose to 90, far above the historical norm of 68. Labor quality was the top problem for 26% of owners. Inflation was cited by 20%, up 4 points from August. A net 31% plan to raise prices, the highest since June, and the average rate on short-term loans rose to 8.2%. Only 7% of owners called it a good time to expand. NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg said owners are proceeding with caution. Bloomberg, via The Edge Malaysia, tied persistent price pressure to high energy costs from the Middle East conflict and the war in Ukraine. NFIB's October reading is due Nov. 10.

Why it mattersHiring difficulty, higher borrowing costs and rising input prices are squeezing the firms that employ nearly half of private-sector workers and could slow expansion plans.

Search & SEO

Google takes AI Mode ads global, adds follow-up ads in U.S.
Google blog: Ads in AI Mode expand to new markets

Google takes AI Mode ads global, adds follow-up ads in U.S.

Alphabet says search ad growth slowed again, partly because AI Mode earns less per query

Google said Oct. 28 that it is expanding ads in AI Mode to 10 more countries: Australia, Canada, India, Kenya, Malaysia, New Zealand, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Singapore. Brazil, Mexico and the U.K. are planned for the fourth quarter. In the U.S., it is launching multiturn ads, which can appear on follow-up questions inside an AI Mode conversation. Existing Search, Shopping and Performance Max campaigns are eligible by default, and advertisers cannot opt out of AI Mode separately. Google says click-through rates for sponsored and organic product listings in AI Mode are already similar, but it has not published the underlying figures. On Alphabet's earnings call, executives said lower AI Mode monetization was one reason Search revenue growth slowed for a second straight quarter. CEO Sundar Pichai said AI Mode queries run about three times longer than traditional searches.

Why it mattersPaid placements inside AI answers add to the pressure on organic and local-pack clicks, and local advertisers cannot choose whether their ads appear there.

Ranking volatility spikes again; Google still confirms no update
Wikipedia

UPDATERanking volatility spikes again; Google still confirms no update

Tracking tools and SEO chatter peak Oct. 26-27, a core update is more than five months overdue by past cadence

Search Engine Roundtable reported on Oct. 27 a larger spike in ranking volatility and community chatter over the previous 24 hours. That followed an unconfirmed signal on Saturday, Oct. 24. Google has announced nothing. The last entry reported on its Search Status Dashboard was the September spam update, which ran from Sept. 24 to Oct. 8, and the most recent core update began May 21. Several site owners have also complained of delayed Search Console data. Google's John Mueller told people on Reddit not to put much weight on how fresh the page-indexing report is, advising them to save their energy. Separately, advertisers cannot agree on whether one local ad unit in results counts as a Local Services ad. Google generally posts confirmed updates on the dashboard with a start time.

Why it mattersLead-generation sites should avoid rewriting pages or blaming a penalty until Google confirms an update and it finishes rolling out.

Google asks some businesses for EIN and adds Messenger links
Wikipedia

Google asks some businesses for EIN and adds Messenger links

Business Profile tweaks arrive alongside restaurant ordering controls and a Bing local-pack test

Search Engine Roundtable reported Oct. 28 that Google is asking some businesses for an Employer Identification Number and a privacy-policy link when they edit parts of their Business Profile. Google is also emailing businesses that it is automatically adding Facebook Messenger m.me links to their profiles. Neither report says why. The EIN requests appear to fit a broader tightening of identity checks, which includes a government-ID verification test reported last week. Separately, Google's Lisa Landsman announced on LinkedIn that restaurants can switch off individual third-party ordering providers, such as delivery apps, from the dashboard, with separate controls for pickup and delivery. A Google product manager said the setting is available in all countries. Bing is testing a phone icon in desktop local-pack results that shows a scan-to-call QR code.

Why it mattersOwners and agencies managing client profiles may need business tax and policy documents on hand, and should check which messaging and ordering links Google is attaching to listings.

Finance

Fed holds at 3.75%-4% as two officials dissent in favor of a hike
CNBC - Fed holds rates steady despite concerns over inflation

UPDATEFed holds at 3.75%-4% as two officials dissent in favor of a hike

Warsh says the central bank will 'deliver price stability'; markets still see a December increase as likely

WASHINGTON — The Federal Open Market Committee left its target range for the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday. The vote was 10-2. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented, preferring a quarter-point increase. The statement described economic activity as expanding at a strong pace, an upgrade from 'solid' in September. It said inflation remains elevated and dropped the sentence that had explained September's hike. Chair Kevin Warsh said politics played no role in the decision, which came a week before the midterm elections. He also said one 2027 meeting will be devoted to strategy, with no rate vote or policy statement. Futures traders were still pricing roughly an 80% chance of a December hike on Thursday. Thursday's PCE inflation report is the next major data point.

Why it mattersThe two hawkish dissents and an upgraded growth assessment keep another rate increase live, which matters for borrowing costs and bond yields near 5%.

Alphabet sheds 10% after hours on cash burn; Microsoft rises
Wikipedia

Alphabet sheds 10% after hours on cash burn; Microsoft rises

First double miss in nearly four years and negative free cash flow revive doubts over AI spending

NEW YORK — Alphabet shares fell more than 10% in after-hours trading Wednesday after third-quarter results missed on both lines. Adjusted earnings were $2.67 a share against $3.02 expected. Revenue was $127.58 billion against $128.22 billion expected, even though sales rose 25% from a year earlier. Free cash flow was negative $9.07 billion, far worse than the roughly $2.70 billion negative figure analysts had expected. The company held its 2026 capital-spending forecast, expected to top $200 billion, and said spending will exceed $300 billion in 2027. Reuters reported the drop erased nearly $400 billion of market value and pushed Nasdaq futures about 1% lower. Microsoft shares rose in extended trading after its own report. Amazon and Intel report later Thursday.

Why it mattersInvestors are separating AI spenders by cash generation, a test that could shape funding costs and valuations across the sector.

Bank of Canada raises rate to 2.5%, first hike since 2023
TD Economics - Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement

UPDATEBank of Canada raises rate to 2.5%, first hike since 2023

Central bank cites energy-driven inflation and warns more tightening may be needed

OTTAWA — The Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% on Wednesday, its first increase since July 2023. The Bank Rate is now 2.75% and the deposit rate 2.45%. Policymakers said high energy prices risk spreading to other goods and services. CPI inflation has run near 3% since April and is projected to reach about 3.5% by year-end. Excluding gasoline, it was 2.2% in September. Governor Tiff Macklem said the Middle East conflict, now in its eighth month, has no clear path to resolution. He said there could be a need to raise the rate further but that the Bank will proceed carefully, one meeting at a time. TD Economics expects one more quarter-point hike in the first quarter of 2027, to 2.75%.

Why it mattersIt confirms the shift among major central banks toward tightening, adding to pressure on bond yields and on rate-sensitive borrowers.

Stocks extend streak to three days on Fed hold; futures slip
CNBC - S&P 500, Dow rise for third consecutive day after Fed

Stocks extend streak to three days on Fed hold; futures slip

S&P 500 ends at 7,743.98 and 10-year yield edges up to 5.02% before the Alphabet-led reversal

NEW YORK — U.S. stocks closed higher for a third straight session Wednesday after the Fed's decision. The S&P 500 gained 0.28% to 7,743.98, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.27% to 26,549.85, and the Dow added 97.53 points to 52,475.10. CNN reported it was the first time since December 2025 that the S&P 500 finished higher on a Fed decision day. The 10-year Treasury yield rose about three basis points to 5.02%. After Warsh's press conference the yield curve steepened, and the 2-year yield fell about 6 basis points to near 4.69%. Futures turned lower overnight after Alphabet's results, with Nasdaq-100 futures down about 1.2% and S&P 500 futures down 0.5% in late Wednesday trading. Thursday's PCE inflation report and Amazon and Intel earnings are next.

Why it mattersEquities are holding near record territory with the 10-year yield at about 5%, leaving them sensitive to inflation data and AI-earnings surprises.

Energy & Infrastructure

Arizona summer peaks outran utility forecasts as data centers drive demand
Wikipedia

Arizona summer peaks outran utility forecasts as data centers drive demand

SRP and APS saw reserve margins near 10% while committing to gigawatts of new data-center load

PHOENIX — Arizona's two biggest utilities hit summer peak demand this year that exceeded their own 2026 forecasts. Salt River Project, which has roughly 10,000 MW of installed supply, served 9,072 MW on July 24. That is about 91% of capacity and roughly 500 MW above its prior peak, and SRP attributes much of the rise to large loads such as data centers. Arizona Public Service says data centers made up about 7% of its peak load this year, up from about 5% last year. Reserve margins at both utilities' latest peaks were about 10%, well short of their targets. APS has sought bids for 8 GW of new capacity by 2031, and more than half could serve data centers. Attorney General Kris Mayes says at least 40 likely projects would double current data-center demand. Western Resource Advocates says residential customers are overpaying about $136 million in APS's pending rate case. That case includes a 14% to 16% residential increase request.

Why it mattersPeak demand running ahead of forecasts, with cost-allocation fights under way, shows the planning and ratepayer-protection problem that utilities from Phoenix to the Tennessee Valley now face.

NRC finalizes rule letting reactor developers reuse federal test data
POWER Engineering

NRC finalizes rule letting reactor developers reuse federal test data

Rule published Oct. 26 takes effect Nov. 25; review targets of 18 and 12 months

ROCKVILLE, Md. — The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has finalized a rule that lets developers of commercial reactors cite safety evaluations and testing already done under Department of Energy or Defense Department authorization. The goal is to avoid duplicate technical reviews. The rule was published in the Federal Register on Oct. 26 and takes effect Nov. 25. The agency says it will still run independent safety reviews, and applicants must show how federal demonstration results apply to their commercial sites and designs. NRC Chairman Ho Nieh described targets of about 18 months for first-of-a-kind applications and 12 months for later ones. He cautioned that actual timelines will vary. It is the first major reactor regulation finalized under President Trump's May 2025 executive order on nuclear licensing. Financing, fuel supply and construction remain the larger hurdles. The NRC also approved a construction permit for TVA's 300-MW Clinch River small modular reactor in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, on Sept. 29.

Why it mattersFaster, cheaper licensing is the main regulatory lever behind the push for new nuclear power for data centers, including TVA's project in Tennessee.

Two Pacific-rim LNG projects edge toward investment decisions
VOI.id (Indonesia)

Two Pacific-rim LNG projects edge toward investment decisions

Indonesia's Abadi finishes engineering design; B.C.'s Ksi Lisims signs German buyer

JAKARTA / VANCOUVER — Two large LNG export projects moved closer to final investment decisions this week. In Indonesia, Japan's Inpex finished front-end engineering design for the Abadi LNG project at the Masela block on Oct. 27, about three months ahead of schedule. Regulator SKK Migas wants a decision by January 2027 at the latest. Its chief said total investment could reach about $22 billion, above Inpex's $21 billion estimate. Production is targeted for 2030. In British Columbia, Ksi Lisims LNG on Oct. 26 turned a preliminary deal with Germany's state-owned SEFE into a binding 20-year purchase of one million tonnes a year. That takes binding contracts to 7 million of a planned 12 million tonnes a year, about 58%. Large projects typically need around 75% contracted to secure financing. Developers say they still expect a decision by the end of 2026. Neither final decision has been taken.

Why it mattersBuyer commitments and engineering milestones indicate which new gas export capacity may actually be built as supply security concerns persist.